Prof. MU Mu, academician of CAS, was invited to participate in the 18th Pacific-Asian Marginal Seas Meeting at Naha, Okinawa, Japan by Prof. Takeshi Matsuno from RIAM, Kyushu University.
He gave an invited presentation titled“Target Observations for High-impact Ocean-Atmospheric Environmental Events”. During the meeting, academician Mu exchanged knowledge on “Target Observations for High-impact Ocean-Atmospheric Environmental Events” and other physical processes in the Pacific and Asian marginal seas with the oceanographers present.
In this presentation, he emphasized the importance of accurate initial conditions in predicting high-impact ocean-atmospheric environmental events, such as El Niño -Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), tropical cyclone (TC) and Kuroshio large meander (KLM), by reviewing recent progresses toward target observations for improving the forecast initialization of these events. Since filed observations are costly and will never be dense enough to fully cover the vast space of these events, it is necessary to develop methodologies that help to design efficient and effective observation strategy.
Of particular interest is a method called conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP), which has been shown to be very useful in determining the sensitive areas for target observations applicable to the predictions of ENSO, IOD, TC and KLM. Further studies are needed to understand the predictability of these events under the influence of climate change, and to explore the possibility of implementing filed programs of target observations. These studies are challenging, but are crucially important for improving our forecast skill of the high-impact ocean-atmospheric environmental events, and thus for disaster prevention, climate change mitigation and sustainable socioeconomic development.
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